Fed decides rates with a pause priced in: the three scenarios markets are watching for stocks, the dollar and gold
The Federal Reserve meets on October 27-28 with inflation still high and employment losing strength. Futures assign an 89.5% probability of holding rates at 3.75%-4.00% and a 10.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. For December, 73.1% points to a 4.00%-4.25% range. The analysis lays out three scenarios: a pause with a restrictive message, a pause with a more cautious tone on December, and a surprise hike, each with a different impact on the Nasdaq 100, the dollar index and gold.
In 40 seconds
- Futures give an 89.5% probability of a pause and only 10.5% to a 25-basis-point hike this week.
- For December 9, 73.1% of probabilities are concentrated in the 4.00%-4.25% range.
- The central scenario is a pause with a restrictive message, without ruling out a December hike.
Read the full story at XTB.com
IASummary generated by artificial intelligence from a story by XTB.com. It may contain errors: the original source prevails.
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