Brazil ahead of the runoff: three scenarios for the real and the Ibovespa

FinanceInternationalXTB.comOct 21, 2026, 3:11 PM45 s readAI summary

Brazil heads into the October 25 presidential runoff with the race practically tied: Flávio Bolsonaro won 47.03% of valid votes in the first round versus 45.16% for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The one-month real risk reversal rose to 9%, its highest level since 2011. After the first round, the Ibovespa gained 7.7% and the real appreciated 4.8%. The analysis outlines three scenarios: a Bolsonaro win with a credible fiscal plan, a Lula win with a strong fiscal signal, or fiscal disappointment under either candidate.

In 45 seconds

Bolsonaro took 47.03% and Lula 45.16% of valid votes in the first round, according to the official count.
The one-month real risk reversal reached 9%, its highest since 2011, on greater demand for hedging.
In the first session after the first round the Ibovespa rose 7.7% and the real appreciated 4.8%, versus historical medians of 3.1% and 1.8%.

Read the full story at XTB.com

IASummary generated by artificial intelligence from a story by XTB.com. It may contain errors: the original source prevails.

Brasil
elecciones
real brasileño
Ibovespa
riesgo fiscal

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Brazil ahead of the runoff: three scenarios for the real and the Ibovespa

In 45 seconds

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