Telefónica shares opened the session down 7.5% after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's victory in Brazil and J.P. Morgan's doubts about its debt. The stock fell to 3.13 euros, its lowest since December 2020, with 1.78 million shares traded, five times the average. Brazil accounts for about 31.7% of the group's revenue and 38% of its EBITDA. JPMorgan cut its rating to "underweight" and lowered its price target to 3.20 euros.
Morgan Stanley estimates that Chinese stocks listed abroad could fall another 10% to 15% before reaching their historical valuation level, around eight times forward earnings for the next 12 months. The analysts, including Laura Wang, attribute the correction to weakening growth and consumption, concerns over the investment fund tax, pressure on e-commerce and global volatility. In mainland China they expect a similar downward revision, to 10-11 times earnings.
After Lula da Silva's victory over Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil's runoff, Mercado Libre shares fall about 10% in Wall Street premarket trading, according to early reports. Nubank shares plunge more than 22% before the official market open and the real weakens against the dollar. Brazil is Mercado Libre's main market: in 2025 it accounted for 52.6% of the group's US$28.893 billion in billings.
Telefónica faced two bearish pressures before the open: Lula da Silva's victory in Brazil's runoff election and a double downgrade from JPMorgan. The bank drops its neutral rating and moves to underweight, cutting its price target by 13%, from 3.70 to 3.20 euros per share. The shares fell as much as 8% and dropped to around 3.10 euros at intraday lows.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil's runoff election with 51.79% of the vote against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro, a result that polls and prediction platforms had not anticipated. November real futures fell 9.12% to about 5.51 reais per dollar, and an ETF tracking the Ibovespa plunged 12.72% in Tokyo. The Ibex 35 opened down 0.92%, dragged by Telefónica (-5.77%) and Santander (-5.13%).
José Landaverde, director of Seguros Azteca, said the Protección Riesgos Digitales policy does not cover online fraud if the customer handed over their PIN, but it does respond when the handover happens under extortion. The product, with coverage of up to 45,000 pesos a year and a cost of 55 pesos a month, covers online fraud, theft and identity impersonation and cyber extortion, and can extend to accounts at other banks. Condusef reported claims worth 11,213 million pesos in the first half of 2026.
Home sales reached 49,319 transactions in August, up 3.4% from the same month a year earlier but 19.7% below July, according to INE. So far this year they total 458,200, down 2.3% from the same period in 2025. That month, 33,841 mortgages for home purchases were signed, up 2.3% year on year and 22% less than in July.
Spain's Ibex 35 opened Monday's session down 0.92% at 18,815 points, in a context marked by the war in Iran, uncertainty over crude supply, the outcome of Brazil's elections and corporate earnings releases. Telefónica (-5.77%), Santander (-5.13%) and Mapfre (-3.28%) posted the steepest declines, while Solaria (+1.57%) and IAG (+1.25%) led gains. Brent fell 1.1% to $115.41 and the euro traded at $1.1208.
Investors face three monetary policy decisions within 72 hours: the Fed on Wednesday 28, the ECB on Thursday 29 and the Bank of Japan on Friday 30. Consensus assumes none will touch rates, with the Fed at 3.75%-4.00% and the ECB deposit facility at 2.50%. The focus will be on whether Warsh and Lagarde leave the door open to December and on the two additional hikes the market discounts for 2027, with Brent at six-month highs.
CLAAS is strengthening its production capacity in Paderborn (Germany) with an investment of more than 70 million euros that coincides with the plant's 70th anniversary, aimed at increasing output of transmission systems and TERRA TRAC crawler tracks and adding robotics, automation, digitalization and artificial intelligence. In Törökszentmiklós (Hungary) it began construction of a new finishing and finished-product handling center. It also inaugurated a 4,160 m2 R&D center in Omaha (USA), part of a 100 million dollar plan for the region.
Home sales resumed their upward trend after rising 3.4% year-on-year in August to 49,319 transactions, following July's 5.1% decline. New-home transactions grew 4.9% (10,521) and second-hand home sales rose 3% (38,798). Mortgages on homes increased 2.3% to 33,841 loans, their highest figure for an August since 2022, with an average interest rate of 3.08% and an average amount of 181,285 euros.
The Ibex companies with the greatest exposure to the Brazilian market are wiping out the gains they posted on October 5, after the first round of Brazil's elections, and are now falling sharply after Lula da Silva won the runoff with 51.76% of the vote against 48.24% for Bolsonaro. Telefónica leads the index's losses with a drop of up to 8%, while Santander falls as much as 5%.
Mallorca-based Farmadosis, specialized in personalized dosing systems (PDS) and pharmaceutical robotics, has partnered with Barcelona-based investor Miura Partners through Miura Impact Fund. The goal is to grow and consolidate its position in pharmaceutical automation and medication traceability in southern Europe. Founder Asier Zubillaga will remain in an executive role, and Joaquín González will continue as CEO. Founded in 2012, Farmadosis has revenue of around 15 million euros and solutions installed in more than 25 countries.
Moeve and Portugal's Galp ended negotiations to merge their refining and distribution (downstream) businesses and create an energy giant in the Iberian Peninsula. The companies said they did not reach definitive terms that met their respective strategic and financial criteria. The non-binding agreement had been reached in January and the deadline had been extended to the second half of 2026. The plan envisaged two platforms: IndustrialCo, with Mubadala and Carlyle holding 80% and Galp above 20%, and RetailCo, split 50-50.
Retail group Dia posted net sales of 4,714.7 million euros in the first nine months of 2026, up 12% at current exchange rates, according to its filing with the CNMV. Spain contributed 3,795 million (+11.4%), with comparable sales of 4,562 million (+8.4%). The company accelerated its opening plan with 85 new stores and 11 closures, and highlighted new customer attraction and a 9% rise in Club DIA members. In Argentina, net sales fell 5.5%.
The ETF tracking the Bovespa in Tokyo plunged nearly 15% after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil's presidential runoff (about 52% to 48%). January Brent falls about 1.9% to around 109.5 USD/bbl after the absence of US attacks on Iran over the weekend. US futures point to a mixed session ahead of the Fed, ECB and BoJ decisions, while Asian markets mostly closed lower.
Talea Capital Partners, formerly Trea Capital Partners, has created Talea Alter, a private equity manager awaiting authorization from Spain's CNMV. The firm chaired by Rosa Cañadas aims to channel its view of corporate finance and respond to interest from the family offices and institutional investors it works with in accessing private market strategies. Talea Alter will target private equity funds and companies, European venture capital funds, and advisory and discretionary portfolio management.
Moeve and Galp announced the end of negotiations to merge their oil refining businesses in the Iberian peninsula. The talks began on January 8 with a non-binding agreement and did not reach definitive terms that met both parties' strategic and financial criteria. Moeve attributes the outcome to the international geopolitical situation and the fall in refining margins. The company says it will remain focused on its Positive Motion strategy.
The Spanish stock market is trying to join the calm seen in other European indices while digesting Lula da Silva's victory over Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's presidential runoff. The Ibex is seeking to reclaim the 19,000 points lost last week, with attention on stocks most exposed to Brazil such as Telefónica, Santander, Mapfre and Iberdrola. The week combines a wave of earnings, macro data and meetings of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.
A UGT report based on the INE's 2025 ICT-Households Survey indicates that 14.8% of employed people in Spain telework, about 3.16 million, while another 16.1%, 3.44 million, say their job would allow it and they don't do it. Potential reaches 30.9% of the total, but only 47.9% is used. More than 875,000 people could work fully remotely and do not do so on any day.
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