Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC), Petrobras & Promigas 6 TCF Sirius-2 Gas Bet: Can Offshore CapEx Beat LNG Import Costs?
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With Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC, 55.56% stake) and operator Petrobras (NYSE: PBR, 44.44%) confirming over 6 TCF of gas at the deepwater Sirius-2 well—enough to triple national reserves and deliver 470 MPCD by 2029—Colombia relies on Promigas's (BVC: PROMIGAS) SPEC LNG terminal to bridge near-term deficits.
Located in Caribbean block GUA-OFF-0 under Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos (ANH) and UPME oversight, Sirius-2 requires ~$1.2 billion in exploration and ~$2.9 billion in subsea-to-shore development CapEx ($4.1 billion total) plus ANLA environmental permits. Meanwhile, Promigas's SPEC LNG regasification facility (expanding from 400 to 533 MPCD after 200+ cargoes) and Grupo Energía Bogotá's TGI (BVC: GEB) keep thermal plants running.
For equity investors comparing upstream producers like Ecopetrol, Petrobras, and Canacol Energy (BVC: CNEC) against CREG-regulated midstream utilities on the Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (BVC), timing is everything. Will immediate LNG regasification cash flows at Promigas outperform Sirius-2's long-dated offshore CapEx cycle through 2029?
Which energy play wins Colombia's natural gas transition through 2029?
- Sirius-2's 6 TCF and $4.1B CapEx will re-rate EC and PBR0 %
- Promigas LNG and TGI pipelines win while Sirius waits to 20290 %
- Depends on ANLA environmental permits and CREG tariff rules0 %
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